• Harsha M

America's vacation trendline

As part of our Short-term rental investment thesis, we went over "# of hours worked" and "access to work from anywhere" statistics in the last two posts.

Today, we are bringing you America's last 40 years of vacation trends and our opinions about the vacations for the next two decades.

Here are a few things we noticed:

1. # of vacation days peak was reached while inflation was decelerating during 1980's.

2. Vacation trend stayed stable between 1980's through the late 1990's.

3. Americans reduced vacationing due to Dotcom and housing bubbles.

4. Vacation trend stayed low until 2013 and started to recover since then.

5. Rise of multi-sided marketplaces (Airbnb, Uber) and good economic times turned around the vacation trends in 2013.

Here is what we think is in store for the American vacations:

1. Due to high inflation, pandemic, and short-term rental costs between 25 to 40% (booking fees + huge lodging taxes), the vacation upward trend is not sustainable.

2. We believe, that staycation and 2nd vacation home trend to increase while long distance vacations would slow down.

3. Next-gen of multi-sided inclusive marketplaces will be born to support vacation hungry Instagram savvy generations.

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